The New York Stock Exchange on Monday.
(Photo: Mario Tama, Getty Images)
Adam Shell, USA TODAY
- Polls say race is too close to call
- Market's 2.5% rise July 31-Oct. 31 bodes well for Obama's chances, by a Wall Street prediction model
- But so-called 'Romney industries' have been stronger recently
The waiting is over. Election Day is finally here. The attention of investors around the globe now turns to the Super Bowl of politics: the U.S. presidential election.
Who's going to win? What will it mean for my portfolio? Voter polls basically say it's a too-close-to-call race between President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
But several market-related indicators are flashing different signals.
For example, people voting with their money on Intrade, a closely followed online prediction market, say Obama has a nearly 67% chance of being re-elected. Mitt Romney's odds of victory? Not as good. Traders are giving the GOP candidate a little more than 33% chance of becoming president.
LPL Financial's proprietary "Wall Street Election Poll," which attempts to decipher the White House winner based on the performance of stocks in industries that are expected to do better under each candidate, shows Romney has been cutting into Obama's lead ever since the first presidential debate on Oct. 3.
Indeed, so-called Romney industries have posted stronger stock performance recently relative to sectors perceived as better bets if Obama wins.
Then there's the Wall Street prediction model showing that since 1900 any time stocks in the S&P 500 index rose in value from July 31 to Oct. 31, the incumbent party was re-elected 80% of the time. The market's 2.5% rise in that period this year bodes well for Obama, S&P Capital IQ data show. But the poll-watching is over. It's up to voters to decide.